Knowledge Base — Chapters 4 & 5

Indices & ETFs

An index is a measuring stick for the market. An ETF tracks that measuring stick automatically — cheaply, transparently and broadly diversified.

4. Indices

An index is a measuring stick. It is a list of stocks (or other investments) that together represent a certain part of the market. The index measures how that group of investments performs in total.

Visualisation — How an index works

Most indices are market capitalisation-weighted: the larger a company, the more weight it carries. In the MSCI World, a company like Apple or Microsoft therefore carries much more weight than a smaller company.

Well-known indices:

Index What does it measure? Number of stocks
AEX25 largest Dutch companies25
STOXX Europe 600600 large European companies600
S&P 500500 largest US companies500
MSCI WorldLarge companies in 23 developed countries~1.400
MSCI Emerging MarketsLarge companies in emerging countries~1.400
FTSE All-WorldStocks worldwide incl. emerging markets~4.000

What can an investment in an index yield?

Interactive tool — MSCI World returns triangle

The triangle is built on the annual MSCI World price returns in EUR. Hover over a cell to see the exact return and investment period.

How to read the triangle?

  • Rows = year of sale (exited at end of that year)
  • Columns = year of purchase (entered at end of that year)
  • Intersection = the average annual return for that combination
  • Ø row at the bottom = the average across all exit years for that entry point

What stands out?

  • Those who entered in 2008 (after the crash of −39%) achieved an above-average return over virtually every exit period thereafter — the Ø of 12.5% per year is the highest of all entry years.
  • This illustrates how entry timing and time horizon together determine the return.
  • The only negative period in recent decades is an entry in 2021 followed by an exit in 2022 (−14.2%), due to the sharp rise in interest rates.
  • However, those who waited one more year (exit 2023 or 2024) were already comfortably back in positive territory.

5. ETFs

5.1 Types of ETFs

There are two ways an ETF replicates the index:

  • Physical replication — the ETF actually buys the stocks. What is in the index is also in the fund. This is the most transparent method. For large, liquid indices (MSCI World, S&P 500) this is highly practical.
  • Synthetic replication — the ETF doesn't buy the stocks itself, but enters into a contract (swap) with a bank that promises to deliver the index return. Slightly more complex, but can be more efficient for hard-to-reach markets (e.g. some Asian or commodity indices).

For most European investors, physically replicating ETFs are the safest and most transparent choice.

Distributing vs. Accumulating ETFs: for long-term wealth building, an accumulating ETF is generally more efficient — dividends are automatically reinvested without any action on your part.

Visualisation — How an ETF works: mechanism & distributing vs. accumulating

5.2 UCITS — why this matters for European investors

European ETFs fall under the UCITS regulation (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities). This is a European quality mark that ensures:

  • Mandatory diversification (no ETF may hold more than 20% in a single stock)
  • Separation of assets: your investments are protected in the event of bankruptcy of the ETF provider
  • Transparency requirements
  • Daily liquidity

US ETFs (e.g. from Vanguard US or iShares US) may not be offered to European retail investors due to MiFID regulation. Always check that an ETF has an ISIN starting with IE (Ireland) or LU (Luxembourg) — those are UCITS funds.

The largest ETF providers in Europe:

Provider Parent company Well-known ETFs
iSharesBlackRock (VS)iShares Core MSCI World (IE00B4L5Y983)
XtrackersDWS / Deutsche BankXtrackers MSCI World (LU0274208692)
VanguardVanguard (VS)Vanguard FTSE All-World (IE00B3RBWM25)
SPDRState Street (VS)SPDR S&P 500 (IE00B6YX5C33)
AmundiAmundi (FR)Amundi MSCI World (LU1681043599)

5.3 Long — the default position

A long position means you own an investment and profit from price increases. This is what most retail investors do.

Long position example

  • Purchase: 10 shares at €100 = €1,000 invested
  • Price rises to €130
  • Sale: 10 × €130 = €1,300
  • Profit: €300 (+30%)
  • Maximum loss: €1,000 (your full investment, if price = €0)

5.4 Short — betting on a price decline

With a short position you borrow shares from a broker, sell them immediately, and hope to buy them back cheaper later. You profit from a price decline.

Short position example

  • You borrow 10 shares at €100 and sell them: €1,000 received
  • Price falls to €70 — buy back: 10 × €70 = €700
  • Return shares to broker
  • Profit: €300 (+30% on the margin)

But what if the price rises?

  • Price rises to €160 — buying back costs: 10 × €160 = €1,600
  • Loss: €600 — and theoretically unlimited (price can rise infinitely)

5.5 ETF Strategies: from broadly diversified to targeted

ETFs come in many varieties — from ultra-broad (the entire world in one fund) to very targeted (one sector, one country, one investment factor). The more specific the focus, the higher the concentration risk — but also the greater the possible deviation from the market.

Comparison — The three major global indices: MSCI World, MSCI ACWI & FTSE All-World

The three broad global indices are the most widely used basis for a passive portfolio. The key difference lies in the treatment of emerging markets (EM): the MSCI World excludes them entirely, while the FTSE All-World and MSCI ACWI include them for ~10%.

For most European investors, the choice between MSCI World and FTSE All-World is a matter of preference — the long-term return difference is historically small. The FTSE All-World gives more exposure to fast-growing economies like China and India, but also to higher political and currency risks.

5.6 Geographic Focus

Besides broad global funds, you can zoom in on specific regions or countries. You do this when you consciously want more or less exposure to a certain region than the market-cap-weighted index offers.

Overview — Geographic ETF focus: regions and countries

A common reason for geographic focus is home bias — European investors feel more comfortable with European companies. Rationally, this doesn't automatically produce a better return, but it does reduce currency risk (euro denomination) and aligns with tax regimes you understand better.

5.7 Sectors and Themes

Sector ETFs and thematic ETFs go a step further: they focus on one specific industry or investment theme.

Overview — Sector and thematic ETFs

Sector ETFs track one of the eleven GICS sectors (Global Industry Classification Standard). They are useful if you have a deliberate sector view — for example more technology than the market offers, or defensive sectors in an expected recession.

Thematic ETFs focus on an investment theme that cuts across sector boundaries. An AI ETF contains companies from technology, healthcare and industry. The risk: themes often become popular after the price rally. Those who entered a clean energy ETF in 2021 were in the middle of the hype — and subsequently lost significantly.

5.8 The Investment Pyramid: From Broad to Targeted

Visualisation — ETF strategy pyramid